Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b46…8438 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,859 (-7%) realized −$10,851 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%57W / 68L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,191per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$4,221
14 days+$1,757
30 days+$3,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$17,157
world 3% +$7
sports 3% +$4,982
crypto 2% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +133.1% +110.9% 60% 50% +26.8%
≤30d 52 +18.0% +6.8% 46% 40% -2.9%
≤90d 97 +9.8% -0.6% 51% 41% -4.5%
all 125 +4.2% -5.7% 46% 36% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 36% -16.5%
10% -14.7% 26% -24.5%
15% -23.0% 19% -31.8%
20% -30.5% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,012) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$619 vs −$691 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized−$10,851
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses57 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,191
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 −$280 -28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,015 +$505 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,012 +$110 +6%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,012 +$493 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$503 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,025 −$911 -89%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $504 −$317 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $509 +$510 +100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,011 −$1,963 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $411 +$5,571 +1354%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$217 +22%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1,016 +$780 +77%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $719 −$337 -47%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1,011 −$92 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,012 −$647 -64%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $814 −$800 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $819 −$684 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,004 +$121 +12%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1,009 −$498 -49%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,028 −$776 -76%
Cyprus leading at halftime? Jun 07 $1,012 +$652 +64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,908 −$1,876 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,002 +$6,046 +604%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $609 +$391 +64%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $949 −$42 -4%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $509 +$275 +54%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $2,011 +$282 +14%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $469 −$463 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $513 −$45 -9%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $497 −$488 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $815 −$800 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $508 −$448 -88%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $509 +$450 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,091 +$729 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $209 −$86 -41%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $481 −$310 -64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $450 +$32 +7%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,131 −$682 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,011 +$120 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $82 +$17 +21%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $170 −$87 -51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $730 −$562 -77%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $334 +$397 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $301 +$5 +2%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $672 −$344 -51%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1,016 −$823 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 36¢ $736 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,519 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,122 2d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,505 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,012 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,514 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $114 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 29¢ $187 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,020 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $5,982 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $411 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,011 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,226 7d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,795 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 8d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 8d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 10¢ $353 8d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $719 9d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 60¢ $919 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.80 · official $991.80 (match) · 290 history records