Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9b44…21c2 politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,247 (+1%) realized +$1,245 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,603per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$30
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$104
other 37% +$517
sports 14% +$811
culture 3% −$7
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +6.2% -3.9% 14% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 95 +2.6% -7.2% 8% 5% -9.5%
all 126 +11.4% +0.8% 21% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 17% -9.0%
10% -8.8% 17% -17.7%
15% -17.6% 15% -25.6%
20% -25.7% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,561) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$7 · ×10.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$1,245
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage110d
Avg bet$1,603
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $413 $415 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $457 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $539 +$2 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,553 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,125 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,085 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,561 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,183 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,044 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $780 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,128 −$2 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $56 +$41 +73%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,288 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $6,342 −$8 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,493 −$5 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $344 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,949 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,299 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $506 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $36 +$55 +152%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,729 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $5,812 −$7 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,850 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $4,571 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,607 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,689 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,012 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $457 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $457 3h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $470 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $471 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $505 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $506 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $531 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $532 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $521 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $522 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $540 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $541 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $479 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $479 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $515 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $516 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $413 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $833 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $834 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $779 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $780 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $744 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $745 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $686 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.01 · official $415.01 (match) · 471 history records