Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9b42…e967 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-7%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -17.3% -25.2% 0% 0% -25.2%
≤30d 1 -17.3% -25.2% 0% 0% -25.2%
≤90d 3 -38.0% -43.9% 33% 0% -23.9%
all 3 -38.0% -43.9% 33% 0% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 0% -23.9%
10% -49.2% 0% -31.2%
15% -54.1% 0% -37.8%
20% -58.6% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage50d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 19 $111 −$19 -17%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $90 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 61¢ $92 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 72¢ $111 38h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 97¢ $13 50d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.63 · official $87.63 (match) · 6 history records