Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b3e…d709 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$8
world 31% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% +$8
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 61 +3.7% -6.1% 31% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 7% -8.5%
10% -15.1% 3% -17.2%
15% -23.3% 3% -25.2%
20% -30.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage255d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $16 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 11 $6 +$11 +186%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $13 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $21 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 21m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 22m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 22m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $45 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $46 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $33 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $10 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $21 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $47 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records