Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9b3d…b866 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$174 (+4%) realized +$177 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$26
politics 37% −$53
sports 16% +$107
crypto 3% −$103
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +14.7% +3.8% 57% 21% -12.6%
≤30d 18 +41.5% +28.0% 61% 33% -10.0%
≤90d 27 +20.0% +8.6% 52% 30% -10.1%
all 27 +20.0% +8.6% 52% 30% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 30% -10.1%
10% -1.8% 22% -18.7%
15% -11.3% 19% -26.6%
20% -20.0% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage69d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $508 $505 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $123 −$28 -23%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $449 −$45 -10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $524 +$8 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $562 +$13 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $559 +$3 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$32 +64%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +198%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $111 −$104 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +363%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $139 +$22 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 +$48 +462%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 11 $9 +$1 +5%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid May 03 $49 +$9 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $19 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $41 16m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 17m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $513 21m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 44¢ $95 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 44¢ $404 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 46¢ $347 3h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 46¢ $103 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 49¢ $21 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 52¢ $51 7h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $524 33h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $531 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $559 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $161 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 99¢ $58 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 17¢ $10 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 61¢ $403 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.76 · official $545.76 (match) · 81 history records