Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b3c…3c8e sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$8 (+7%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 2 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 2 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -0.4%
all 2 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -0.4%
10% -25.4% 50% -10.0%
15% -32.6% 50% -18.7%
20% -39.2% 50% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$30 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 40¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$38 +82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.96 · official $32.96 (match) · 5 history records