Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
9B 0x9b2f…d8f8 politics 849 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d ⚠
COPY-WORTHYcopy this politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 257d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,540 (+14%) realized +$8,642 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate75%629W / 208L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$40
14 days+$179
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$4,722
world 27% +$966
other 7% +$700
sports 6% +$574
crypto 1% +$188
economics 1% +$118
finance 0% +$54
tech 0% +$113
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 39% -7.7%
≤30d 64 +11.3% +0.7% 66% 48% -5.6%
≤90d 312 +25.0% +13.1% 72% 52% +0.3%
all 837 +31.3% +18.8% 75% 54% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 54% +2.4%
10% +7.4% 40% -7.4%
15% -3.0% 31% -16.3%
20% -12.5% 22% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$972
Realized+$8,642
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses629 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)837 / 849
History coverage257d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 82¢ $250 $412 +$162 (+65%)
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Yes 63¢ 95¢ $118 $179 +$61 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $89 $94 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 18¢ $250 $88 −$162 (-65%)
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? No 66¢ 72¢ $61 $67 +$6 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 85¢ 90¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 28¢ 17¢ $56 $35 −$21 (-38%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+48%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $12 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 50¢ 96¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+91%)
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No 67¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 60¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $58 $0 +1%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $40 −$25 -62%
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 16 $288 +$12 +4%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $136 +$12 +9%
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? Jun 16 $34 +$50 +149%
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Trump say "G7" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $52 +$8 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $116 +$10 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $134 +$119 +88%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $127 −$92 -73%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $57 +$4 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $27 +$13 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $58 −$10 -16%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $72 −$68 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $163 −$64 -39%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $214 +$29 +14%
Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? Jun 12 $181 +$2 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 09 $35 +$44 +124%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $381 +$28 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $24 +$6 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $176 +$15 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 06 $17 −$8 -49%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Jun 06 $59 +$12 +20%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $109 +$19 +17%
Will Trump say "Scam" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $8 +$15 +180%
Will Trump say "Coal" 5+ times during coal announcement? Jun 05 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Trump say "Champion" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $34 +$5 +14%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $32 −$31 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $0 $0 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 01 $16 +$14 +89%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $23 +$22 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $415 −$33 -8%
Will Vance say "President" or "Trump" 10+ times during Air Force Acade May 28 $20 +$30 +150%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $61 +$80 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $26 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $15 43m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $15 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $36 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $58 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 60¢ $6 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 5h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 6h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $51 6h
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? BUY No 5¢ $2 6h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 14h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 15h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 15h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 58¢ $1 21h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 34h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $65 34h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 37h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 66¢ $60 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.12 · official $975.49 (match) · 3500 history records