Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b2d…51ba world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%33W / 57L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$11
other 25% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -7.9% 56% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 30 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 73 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 1% -9.2%
all 90 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses33 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage473d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $106 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $47 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $109 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $72 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $15 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.16 · official $42.16 (match) · 359 history records