Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9B 0x9b2c…2151 sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$10,774 (+55%) realized +$11,557 · open −$783
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 149L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$2,137
14 days−$5,014
30 days+$7,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$11,712
other 12% −$706
politics 5% +$429
tech 4% −$660
economics 3% −$651
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +28.8% +16.6% 10% 10% +24.3%
≤30d 160 +46.6% +32.6% 11% 11% +27.4%
≤90d 170 +64.7% +49.0% 12% 12% +37.6%
all 171 +73.2% +56.7% 13% 12% +45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.7% 12% +45.6%
10% +41.7% 12% +31.6%
15% +28.0% 12% +18.9%
20% +15.5% 12% +7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +160% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,154 vs −$97 · ×11.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$2,140
Realized+$11,557
Unrealized−$783
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 149
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions26
Markets (closed)171 / 197
History coverage139d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 8¢ 13¢ $120 $195 +$75 (+63%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 3¢ $120 $160 +$40 (+33%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 5¢ $121 $151 +$30 (+25%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 4¢ $120 $144 +$24 (+20%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 12¢ 12¢ $132 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 9¢ 10¢ $121 $127 +$7 (+6%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $122 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 5¢ 4¢ $120 $110 −$10 (-9%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 6¢ $112 $103 −$9 (-8%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 5¢ $120 $102 −$18 (-15%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $120 $94 −$26 (-22%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $103 $94 −$9 (-9%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 9¢ 6¢ $120 $88 −$32 (-27%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 8¢ $113 $86 −$27 (-24%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 10¢ 6¢ $117 $68 −$49 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? No 11¢ 6¢ $111 $67 −$44 (-40%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 3¢ $121 $46 −$75 (-62%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 10¢ 3¢ $118 $30 −$88 (-75%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 1¢ $122 $29 −$92 (-76%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 1¢ $119 $26 −$93 (-78%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 1¢ $122 $23 −$99 (-81%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 2¢ $57 $13 −$44 (-78%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 1¢ $122 $12 −$110 (-90%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $125 −$121 -97%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $125 −$121 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $128 +$1,472 +1146%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $124 +$1,216 +982%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $123 +$1,077 +874%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $124 +$1,596 +1290%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Tucuman: Samuel Heredia vs Hernan Casanova Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jason Jung Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $123 +$1,877 +1521%
Lyon: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche Jun 08 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 9¢ $120 31m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 9¢ $0 31m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 9¢ $0 31m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 9¢ $0 31m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 10¢ $95 44m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 10¢ $26 44m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 5¢ $123 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 6¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 5¢ $123 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 6¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 8¢ $14 22h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 8¢ $114 22h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Norbert Gombos 9¢ $111 22h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 9¢ $124 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 10¢ $72 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 10¢ $28 23h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $123 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 10¢ $15 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 10¢ $5 23h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $5 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $3 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $0 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $115 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 8¢ $20 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 8¢ $10 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 7¢ $94 31h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 9¢ $123 43h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 10¢ $123 44h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 7¢ $108 45h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 10¢ $123 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,139.61 · official $2,141.60 (match) · 631 history records