Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9b2c…88a7 crypto 439 markets active 15h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%266W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$183
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$556
sports 1% −$27
other 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +29.0% +16.7% 69% 56% -25.6%
≤30d 270 +17.1% +6.0% 60% 47% -32.3%
≤90d 439 +23.8% +12.0% 61% 50% -19.7%
all 439 +23.8% +12.0% 61% 50% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 50% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 37% -27.3%
15% -8.5% 26% -34.4%
20% -17.5% 18% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses266 / 173
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)439 / 439
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 439 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records