Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

9B 0x9b29…4f2c crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$139 (+25%) realized +$139 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate75%15W / 5L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+7.8%	-2.4%	75%	65%	+9.2%
≤30d	20	+7.8%	-2.4%	75%	65%	+9.2%
≤90d	20	+7.8%	-2.4%	75%	65%	+9.2%
all	20	+7.8%	-2.4%	75%	65%	+9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-2.4%	65%	+9.2%
10% ← realistic here	-11.8%	45%	-1.3%
15%	-20.3%	40%	-10.8%
20%	-28.1%	20%	-19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

13% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$139

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses15 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$33	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 18	$50	+$2	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$9	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$12	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$10	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$28	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 18	$31	+$18	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 18	$41	+$18	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 18	$62	+$7	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 18	$31	+$14	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$4	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 18	$31	−$15	-49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 18	$10	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$4	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$64	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$61	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	77¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$41	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$35	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$34	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$45	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$16	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$31	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$11	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$6	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records