Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b28…5b76 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,364 (-11%) realized −$1,343 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%63W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$421
crypto 23% −$469
weather 11% −$335
economics 3% −$280
sports 1% +$7
culture 1% −$32
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -30.9%
≤30d 10 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -30.9%
≤90d 97 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 27% -20.7%
all 195 -21.2% -28.7% 32% 21% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 21% -19.8%
10% -35.5% 16% -27.5%
15% -41.7% 11% -34.5%
20% -47.4% 7% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$1,343
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses63 / 132
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)195 / 209
History coverage185d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $51 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 57¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $33 $1 −$33 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 14? May 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 15? May 14 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 14 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 14? May 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $153 −$92 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $174 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 12 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $82 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $99 +$46 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11? May 11 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11? May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10? May 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11? May 10 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? May 10 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 10? May 10 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 09 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 09 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 09 $39 +$37 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $247 −$128 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.56 · official $201.56 (match) · 921 history records