Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b24…b121 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$246 (-0%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 101L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$9
politics 37% −$46
sports 10% −$207
economics 3% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -13.6% -21.8% 7% 0% -10.9%
all 137 +1.2% -8.5% 26% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -9.7%
10% -17.2% 9% -18.4%
15% -25.2% 9% -26.3%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,054) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$644
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage145d
Avg bet$810
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $644 $644 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $318 +$2 +1%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $811 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,759 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,628 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $768 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $701 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $769 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $807 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $709 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,087 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $423 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $720 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,937 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,525 −$5 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,419 −$3 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $586 +$2 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,907 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $2,215 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,054 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,016 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $362 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $363 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $644 24h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $489 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $490 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $842 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $843 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $811 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $676 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $677 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $812 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $812 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $767 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $768 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $700 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $701 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $768 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $769 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $594 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $595 11d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $806 14d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $807 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $809 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $810 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $809 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.55 · official $643.55 (match) · 467 history records