Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b20…db9b other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$129 (+5%) realized +$178 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$324
14 days−$219
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$157
sports 18% −$43
crypto 11% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -24.1% -31.4% 35% 30% -22.4%
≤30d 69 -19.6% -27.2% 36% 32% -17.0%
≤90d 74 -19.4% -27.1% 36% 32% -16.9%
all 74 -19.4% -27.1% 36% 32% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 32% -16.9%
10% -34.0% 28% -24.9%
15% -40.4% 24% -32.1%
20% -46.3% 19% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage69d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $126 $79 −$48 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$50 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $32 +$60 +188%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $357 −$355 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$48 +76%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $72 −$3 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $120 +$21 +17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 +$14 +32%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$13 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$17 -32%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $17 +$43 +253%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $0 $0 +13%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -47%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $27 +$73 +270%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 +$36 +48%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$83 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$95 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $38 +$4 +10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $69 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $69 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $32 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 13h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $40 14h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $35 14h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $37 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $41 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.35 · official $133.35 (match) · 260 history records