Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9b1f…4b98 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$149 (+15%) realized +$111 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$128
other 39% +$33
world 10% +$23
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +53.0% +38.4% 100% 100% +40.1%
≤30d 6 +53.0% +38.4% 100% 100% +40.1%
≤90d 6 +53.0% +38.4% 100% 100% +40.1%
all 15 +15.2% +4.2% 80% 73% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 73% +4.8%
10% -5.8% 67% -5.2%
15% -14.9% 33% -14.4%
20% -23.2% 13% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$41 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage230d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $40 $78 +$38 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $28 +$7 +26%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $45 +$14 +30%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $28 +$21 +73%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $28 +$11 +38%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $182 +$57 +31%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $151 +$31 +20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $18 +$7 +41%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Feb 23 $49 −$22 -46%
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds? Dec 31 $10 $0 +4%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Dec 20 $123 +$43 +35%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11? Nov 23 $99 +$23 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 42h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 18d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $28 18d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 18d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 18d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 99d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $49 99d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 99d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 102d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $182 103d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 103d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 104d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 121d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $18 122d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 125d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 129d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 129d
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 181d
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? BUY Yes 74¢ $123 192d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11? BUY No 81¢ $99 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.04 · official $73.33 · 36 history records