Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b1f…f549 other 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$610 (+3%) realized +$610 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%171W / 134L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$467
other 28% −$48
crypto 18% +$64
world 1% +$56
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.7% -5.3% 79% 50% -17.4%
≤30d 14 +4.7% -5.3% 79% 50% -17.4%
≤90d 78 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 47% -8.4%
all 305 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 46% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -7.3%
10% -22.4% 28% -16.2%
15% -29.9% 21% -24.3%
20% -36.8% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses171 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage140d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $216 +$20 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $38 +$4 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$4 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$13 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $432 −$413 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $161 +$25 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $221 +$64 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$185 +183%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $220 +$44 +20%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $198 +$22 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $104 +$8 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $97 +$5 +5%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $106 +$43 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $480 +$240 +50%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $62 +$8 +13%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $16 +$5 +29%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $16 +$5 +30%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $17 +$5 +29%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $207 +$32 +15%
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $148 +$19 +13%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $62 −$62 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5 Apr 17 $53 +$18 +34%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $32 −$31 -96%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $19 −$19 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $227 +$1 +1%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $21 +$40 +190%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $435 −$35 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $348 +$362 +104%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 13 $392 +$46 +12%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 4.5 Apr 13 $371 +$33 +9%
Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $72 +$9 +12%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $59 +$11 +19%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $51 +$9 +18%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $296 −$50 -17%
Kayserispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $266 +$35 +13%
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $453 +$41 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $122 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $114 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $114 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $43 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $42 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $38 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $35 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $19 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $318 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $114 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $0 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $89 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $196 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $221 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $286 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $264 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $220 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $126 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1336 history records