Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b1e…cc93 weather 770 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,708 (+2%) realized +$2,686 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%712W / 47L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$39
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$513
crypto 12% +$449
other 1% −$186
sports 0% −$40
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 51 -2.2% -11.6% 92% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 759 +7.1% -3.1% 94% 6% -9.1%
all 759 +7.1% -3.1% 94% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 6% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -20.9% 3% -25.7%
20% -28.6% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$63 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,673
Realized+$2,686
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses712 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)759 / 770
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$195
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $500 +$2 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? No 97¢ 96¢ $290 $289 −$1 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $190 $201 +$11 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $200 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 80¢ 100¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+24%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 91¢ 90¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 55¢ 55¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$9 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $790 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$34 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $390 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $69 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 97¢ $290 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $23 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $198 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $197 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $18 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $47 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $19 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $84 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,673.26 · official $1,673.26 (match) · 3500 history records