Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b1b…7217 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$523 (-34%) realized −$472 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$106
14 days+$114
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$584
other 35% −$58
sports 7% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.9% +17.5% 55% 55% +21.0%
≤30d 13 +29.1% +16.8% 62% 54% +15.6%
≤90d 16 +24.3% +12.4% 56% 50% -41.8%
all 16 +24.3% +12.4% 56% 50% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 50% -41.8%
10% +1.7% 44% -47.4%
15% -8.2% 44% -52.5%
20% -17.2% 38% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$128 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$472
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage156d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $16 +$23 +140%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $22 +$40 +187%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $25 +$71 +289%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$28 +132%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 +$23 +68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 +$14 +13%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 30 $795 −$795 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $101 +$211 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 21m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $11 39m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 25¢ $14 51m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $117 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $107 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 22d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 30d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 41d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $312 44d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $101 44d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $795 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.27 · official $149.39 (match) · 55 history records