Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b1a…7738 crypto 1431 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-1%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%878W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$94
14 days+$7
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$388
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.8% -6.1% 77% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 366 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 48% -11.3%
≤90d 1392 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 51% -12.1%
all 1431 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 52% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 52% -11.4%
10% -21.5% 35% -19.9%
15% -29.0% 26% -27.6%
20% -36.0% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses878 / 553
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1431 / 1431
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1431 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $63 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$56 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $89 −$35 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $91 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $84 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $64 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $70 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $56 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $93 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $86 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $81 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$6 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $63 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $63 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $62 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $55 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $39 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $32 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $39 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $78 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $54 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $58 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records