Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b13…8c26
other · 25 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$97 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$48
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage136d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 5 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 61¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during remarks on January 28? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? No 50¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during the announcement on Thursday? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Yes 64¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Greenland" during remarks on January 28? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +94%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $44 −$21 -48%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during the announcement on Th Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during t Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 29 $53 −$48 -91%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Jan 29 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 29 $35 −$27 -78%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28 Jan 28 $36 −$5 -13%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during remarks on January 28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during r Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$50
politics 44% −$40
sports 4% −$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 19h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 124d
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less BUY Yes $2 124d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 124d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 124d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 124d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 125d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 125d
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 125d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 131d
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during the announcement on Th BUY Yes $2 134d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during t BUY Yes $3 134d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 50¢ $50 134d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 134d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 135d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 135d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? SELL No $8 135d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? SELL No 28¢ $5 135d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? BUY No $5 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +5.0%
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +5.0%
≤90d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +5.0%
all 20 -30.1% -36.8% 25% 25% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 25% -44.0%
10% -42.8% 25% -49.4%
15% -48.4% 25% -54.3%
20% -53.4% 25% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.99 · official $47.86 (match) · 51 history records