Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b13…37db sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$649 (-7%) realized −$294 · open −$355
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$395
7 days−$470
14 days−$508
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$983
other 8% +$27
crypto 1% −$55
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 45% -15.8%
≤30d 117 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 48% -16.0%
≤90d 117 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 48% -16.0%
all 117 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 48% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 48% -16.0%
10% -27.8% 44% -24.1%
15% -34.8% 37% -31.4%
20% -41.2% 31% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$64 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$355
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 59
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage19d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 45¢ 15¢ $120 $40 −$80 (-67%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 42¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 56¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $224 −$200 -89%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $49 +$8 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $160 +$140 +87%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$14 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +23%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $152 +$148 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $147 +$193 +131%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang Jun 18 $139 −$8 -6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $95 +$104 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$124 +41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $241 +$14 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $87 −$53 -61%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 −$139 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $54 −$43 -79%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $259 −$255 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $147 −$145 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $250 +$124 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $139 +$22 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $202 +$121 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $99 −$98 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $68 −$68 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $209 −$36 -17%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $50 +$20 +39%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$15 +36%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $94 +$55 +59%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $47 −$37 -79%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $75 −$17 -23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $50 +$18 +36%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$121 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $122 48m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy $24 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 29¢ $29 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $28 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $8 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $150 1h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 SELL WST 100¢ $56 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $300 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $67 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $100 2h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 86¢ $49 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $30 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $110 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $59 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $100 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $23 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $67 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang BUY Hanna Chang 83¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.30 · official $40.30 (match) · 282 history records