Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9B 0x9b13…c879 crypto 3 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized +$15 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$261per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+25.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+38.2%	+25.1%	100%	100%	+25.1%
≤30d	1	+38.2%	+25.1%	100%	100%	+25.1%
≤90d	1	+38.2%	+25.1%	100%	100%	+25.1%
all	1	+38.2%	+25.1%	100%	100%	+25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.1%	100%	+25.1%
10%	+13.1%	100%	+13.1%
15%	+2.2%	100%	+2.2%
20%	-7.8%	0%	-7.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$710

Realized+$15

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$261

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$366	$356	−$10 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$370	$353	−$16 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 12	$26	+$10	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$119	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$123	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$257	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$257	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$36	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.80 · official $709.80 (match) · 10 history records