Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b12…f2a4 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3
other 26% $0
politics 7% −$4
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
all 49 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -10.6%
10% -23.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -31.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage485d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $40 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Mar 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $11 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $10 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 126 history records