trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 50% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 50% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -16.4% | -24.4% | 11% | 0% | -13.9% |
| all | 9 | -16.4% | -24.4% | 11% | 0% | -13.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.4% | 0% | -13.9% |
| 10% | -31.6% | 0% | -22.1% |
| 15% | -38.2% | 0% | -29.6% |
| 20% | -44.3% | 0% | -36.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 58¢ | $500 | $585 | +$85 (+17%) |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 42¢ | $500 | $415 | −$85 (-17%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | $103 | $107 | +$4 (+4%) |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $76 | $77 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? | No | 18¢ | 18¢ | $78 | $76 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $43 | $40 | −$3 (-8%) |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $11 | $12 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me | Jun 18 | $29 | −$3 | -10% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $969 | +$18 | +2% |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30? | Apr 30 | $186 | −$14 | -8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Apr 30 | $1,815 | −$73 | -4% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Apr 30 | $1,445 | −$153 | -11% |
| Kash Patel out by May 31? | Apr 30 | $248 | −$17 | -7% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $2,579 | −$70 | -3% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? | Apr 30 | $501 | −$41 | -8% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? | Apr 30 | $446 | −$34 | -8% |