Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b05…e6c2 other 92 markets active 19d ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,189 (-5%) realized −$12,189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate55%62W / 50L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,739per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,541
7 days−$8,541
14 days−$8,541
30 days−$8,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$491
world 30% +$82
crypto 16% −$100
politics 4% +$375
economics 4% −$58
culture 2% +$699
tech 1% −$29
finance 0% +$339
sports 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -76.7%
≤90d 26 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -76.7%
all 112 -8.3% -17.0% 55% 24% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 24% -11.8%
10% -25.0% 14% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.2% 11% -27.9%
20% -38.9% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$423 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses62 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 92
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$2,739
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 28 $395 −$395 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? Jun 28 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on February 20, 2026? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 28 $99 −$599 -603%
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 28 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 28 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" 13+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 28 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? Jun 28 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Jun 28 $1,245 −$1,245 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 28 $1,098 −$1,098 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 28 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Jun 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $656 +$302 +46%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $350 −$52 -15%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $299 +$58 +20%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $300 −$12 -4%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $595 −$115 -19%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $300 +$36 +12%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $250 +$50 +20%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $250 +$50 +20%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $350 +$50 +14%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $300 +$200 +67%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $250 +$50 +20%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 25 $100 +$10 +10%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $325 +$147 +45%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 16 $7,301 −$522 -7%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Mar 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-03-09? Mar 16 $157 +$9 +6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 16 $200 +$29 +15%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-03-08? Mar 16 $200 +$63 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 08 $495 +$5 +1%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 08 $4,615 +$385 +8%
Will Dear Me - Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Original Song at the Mar 07 $13 +$9 +67%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 05 $4,591 −$4,591 -100%
Will Logan Paul score a TD during Flag Football Classic? Mar 05 $286 −$273 -95%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 03 $2,730 $0 +0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 03 $1,840 +$677 +37%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 02 $21,521 +$4,166 +19%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 02 $2,958 −$5 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $260 −$260 -100%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $659 +$1,927 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $958 18d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $288 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $95 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $288 18d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $356 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $334 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 88d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $208 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records