Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9b01…15e9 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$169 (+7%) realized +$190 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$112
crypto 17% +$12
sports 17% +$215
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 43% -5.1%
≤30d 56 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 43% -5.1%
≤90d 56 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 43% -5.1%
all 56 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 43% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 43% -5.1%
10% -17.8% 38% -14.2%
15% -25.7% 32% -22.5%
20% -33.0% 23% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage6d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 −$20 -27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $178 +$17 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 +$7 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $151 +$30 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $452 −$252 -56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $387 +$24 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $161 +$50 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $203 +$114 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -89%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$45 +223%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +112%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$52 +504%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$38 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $178 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $181 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $144 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $95 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $387 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $304 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 30¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 18¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $316 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.26 · official $9.26 (match) · 118 history records