Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aee…77ec crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$191 (+4%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$2
politics 30% +$1
crypto 12% +$15
sports 8% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 3 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 9 +3.0% -6.9% 100% 11% -6.2%
all 62 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 8% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -5.7%
10% -15.0% 6% -14.8%
15% -23.2% 3% -23.0%
20% -30.7% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×32.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×50.08 per $1 lost it wins $50.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage618d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? No 99¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $34 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $16 $0 +1%
Sabres vs. Penguins Nov 27 $184 +$176 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 28 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 28 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 29 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $0 $0 +25%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $554 −$1 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 23 $570 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 89¢ $34 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? BUY No 96¢ $32 22d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 98¢ $15 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $17 54d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 98¢ $15 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 83d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 112d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 112d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 142d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $18 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 173d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 51¢ $184 205d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $16 234d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $17 234d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 98¢ $8 264d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 98¢ $25 264d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 94¢ $31 298d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $30 329d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 355d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 96¢ $29 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $15 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 458d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $9 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $7 495d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $12 495d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.62 · official $29.62 (match) · 192 history records