Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aec…44fa other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3
other 33% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 10% −$1
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 8 +4.3% -5.7% 38% 25% -8.1%
all 38 +0.4% -9.1% 39% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage454d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $60 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $31 +$10 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $36 −$5 -15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 20 $12 $0 -4%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 13 $22 −$1 -2%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $14 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $44 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $28 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $14 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $41 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $20 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $36 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.53 · official $42.53 (match) · 120 history records