Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

9A 0x9aec…aff7 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$578 (-12%) realized +$387 · open −$965

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR10%break-even

Win rate10%2W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$185per market

Trades / day49.0pace

Fees−$33est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$1,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +10%

net ROI/market (all)-77.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-74.6%	-77.0%	10%	10%	-76.9%
≤30d	20	-74.6%	-77.0%	10%	10%	-76.9%
≤90d	20	-74.6%	-77.0%	10%	10%	-76.9%
all	20	-74.6%	-77.0%	10%	10%	-76.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover49.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-77.0%	10%	-76.9%
10% ← realistic here	-79.2%	10%	-79.2%
15%	-81.2%	10%	-81.2%
20%	-83.1%	10%	-83.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -75% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -49% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$106 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,528

Realized+$387

Unrealized−$965

Win rate (resolved)10%

Wins / losses2 / 18

Est. fees paid−$33

Open positions6

Markets (closed)20 / 27

History coverage1d

Avg bet$185

Trades / day49.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9	C9	18¢	16¢	$800	$752	−$48 (-6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$250	$243	−$7 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$250	$243	−$7 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$250	$225	−$25 (-10%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$66	$64	−$2 (-3%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	LOS	50¢	0¢	$877	$1	−$876 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 27	$382	−$362	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 27	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 27	$40	−$38	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 27	$42	−$39	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 27	$122	−$122	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 27	$212	−$200	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 27	$211	−$211	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 27	$66	−$62	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 27	$99	−$94	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 27	$107	+$59	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 27	$150	−$90	-60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 27	$179	−$179	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 27	$119	−$72	-60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 27	$184	−$36	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 27	$93	+$87	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 27	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 27	$124	−$118	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 27	$107	−$100	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 27	$59	−$59	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$67	9m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$256	9m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	19¢	$256	10m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	5¢	$257	10m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9	BUY C9	18¢	$820	11m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	BUY LOS	32¢	$27	33m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	BUY LOS	51¢	$862	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$26	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$53	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$271	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$58	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$53	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$27	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$14	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$16	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$16	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$10	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$88	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$136	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$68	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$99	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$66	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$49	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$107	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,527.53 · official $1,556.65 · 56 history records