Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9aeb…2729
world · 505 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$66,014 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57,704 · open +$4,865
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57,571
Realized+$57,704
Unrealized+$4,865
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses344 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions36
Markets (closed)470 / 505
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2,410
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 36 History 470 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$994
7 days+$8,339
14 days+$13,259
30 days+$21,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 93¢ 99¢ $26,890 $28,473 +$1,582 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,194 $4,188 −$6 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 74¢ 96¢ $2,414 $3,120 +$705 (+29%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $2,308 $2,701 +$393 (+17%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 71¢ 81¢ $1,825 $2,085 +$261 (+14%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $1,387 $1,791 +$404 (+29%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 54¢ 66¢ $1,285 $1,567 +$282 (+22%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,388 $1,483 +$95 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,396 $1,399 +$3 (+0%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 74¢ 93¢ $1,091 $1,362 +$271 (+25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,220 $1,235 +$15 (+1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 40¢ 45¢ $1,038 $1,180 +$143 (+14%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $874 $900 +$27 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 89¢ 86¢ $764 $736 −$28 (-4%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 19¢ 36¢ $390 $732 +$342 (+88%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $476 $536 +$60 (+13%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $407 $472 +$65 (+16%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $419 $458 +$39 (+9%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 63¢ 80¢ $261 $334 +$73 (+28%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 62¢ $306 $326 +$21 (+7%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 98¢ 90¢ $313 $289 −$24 (-8%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $328 $283 −$45 (-14%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $265 $283 +$18 (+7%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $257 $274 +$17 (+7%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $164 $227 +$63 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,740 +$636 +17%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $496 +$30 +6%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $1,381 +$32 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5,203 +$13 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $9,689 +$115 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,007 +$148 +7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $4,779 +$127 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $994 +$6 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $434 −$290 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $82 +$177 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $58 +$19 +32%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $804 +$280 +35%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $434 +$60 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,201 +$114 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,630 +$377 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $207 +$59 +28%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $3,038 +$539 +18%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $304 +$16 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9,304 +$2,878 +31%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$9 +85%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $291 +$51 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,705 +$1,165 +25%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $13,928 +$67 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $23 +$4 +17%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 08 $169 +$8 +5%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $162 −$162 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $956 −$956 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $440 +$100 +23%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $1,241 +$1,349 +109%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $9,569 +$1,045 +11%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $506 +$23 +5%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 08 $97 +$5 +5%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $396 +$44 +11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,908 +$619 +32%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $413 +$32 +8%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $353 +$12 +4%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $87 +$47 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3,476 +$480 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 +$4 +8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $149 +$20 +14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $837 +$44 +5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $103 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $1,197 −$896 -75%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $57 −$57 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$8,730
other 16% +$19,798
politics 15% +$22,488
culture 13% +$11,464
tech 10% +$10,548
crypto 5% +$6,132
sports 4% +$850
finance 2% +$207
weather 0% +$27
economics 0% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $4,195 11m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 89¢ $767 12m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 98¢ $314 30m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 78¢ $1,049 35m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 97¢ $1,397 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,646 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $207 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $351 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.3% -7.4% 83% 42% -1.1%
≤30d 222 -2.5% -11.8% 73% 35% -4.3%
≤90d 470 +1.4% -8.2% 73% 33% -5.0%
all 470 +1.4% -8.2% 73% 33% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 33% -5.0%
10% -17.0% 22% -14.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 14% -22.4%
20% -32.4% 9% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,571.39 · official $57,575.88 (match) · 3500 history records