Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aea…9709 politics 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,518 (+1%) realized +$1,518 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%26W / 159L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$179
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$121
politics 38% −$133
sports 12% +$1,710
world 2% +$3
economics 2% −$3
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 -2.7% -12.0% 7% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 143 -9.1% -17.7% 4% 3% -9.2%
all 185 -2.2% -11.5% 14% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 8% -17.7%
15% -27.7% 6% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,810) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$8 · ×13.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$1,518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses26 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $734 $733 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,775 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,748 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,010 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $4,089 −$7 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $83 +$75 +90%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,087 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,842 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,941 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,746 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $4,153 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,898 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $953 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $498 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,561 −$3 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $639 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $59 +$93 +158%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $659 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $69 +$70 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $734 23m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 2h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 3h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $783 5h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $784 8h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $502 18h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $503 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $745 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $684 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $685 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $829 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $830 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $831 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $629 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $630 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $157 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $965 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $966 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $791 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $792 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $812 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $813 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $792 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $793 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.41 · official $890.42 (match) · 612 history records