Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ae5…d359 politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$23
other 12% −$3
economics 10% −$2
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -12.1% -20.5% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -28.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -41.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage662d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elec Feb 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Maine's 2nd congressional dist Jan 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Nov 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ipswich Town be relegated? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will $NEIRO be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 40d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 43d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 44d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 46d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 47d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 68d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 69d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 86d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 87d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $54 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 97d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 98d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 100d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 101d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 102d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 103d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 108d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 108d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 110d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records