Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ae3…b713 crypto 870 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,625 (-9%) realized −$2,625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%460W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day170.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days−$229
14 days−$1,329
30 days−$1,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤30d 870 -5.9% -14.8% 53% 53% -14.4%
≤90d 870 -5.9% -14.8% 53% 53% -14.4%
all 870 -5.9% -14.8% 53% 53% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 53% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 52% -22.6%
15% -30.4% 49% -30.1%
20% -37.2% 45% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses460 / 410
Open positions0
Markets (closed)870 / 870
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day170.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 870 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$22 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$19 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$18 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$22 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$18 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$15 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$19 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$22 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$19 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$21 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $23 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records