Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ae2…ea05 crypto 1038 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$257 (-1%) realized −$257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate79%817W / 221L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$179
14 days+$235
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$414
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.5% -6.3% 82% 73% +0.3%
≤30d 209 -2.1% -11.5% 67% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 1038 -4.2% -13.4% 79% 24% -9.9%
all 1038 -4.2% -13.4% 79% 24% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 24% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 10% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 4% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses817 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1038
History coverage84d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $512 +$246 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $509 +$157 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $512 −$333 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $509 +$101 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $510 −$464 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $512 +$209 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $506 +$83 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $509 +$89 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $251 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $254 +$71 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $50 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $512 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $666 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $509 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $158 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $512 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $610 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $509 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $721 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $512 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $45 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $510 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $589 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $598 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $509 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $35 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $19 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $23 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2742 history records