Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ae0…9d09 politics 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
other 24% $0
world 14% −$4
economics 9% +$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 5 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -11.5%
all 48 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage328d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $11 −$3 -29%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 02 $48 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 02 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $123K July 28–August 3? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $49 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 01 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $1 $0 -14%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $38 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 5¢ $8 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $11 14d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $4 320d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 320d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 320d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $12 320d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $11 321d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $15 322d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 322d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 323d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $7 323d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $8 323d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $7 323d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $8 323d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $8 323d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 323d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 323d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $7 323d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records