Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9ade…9951 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$91
crypto 34% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 60% 60% -11.7%
≤30d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 60% 60% -11.7%
≤90d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 60% 60% -11.7%
all 5 -14.4% -22.5% 60% 60% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 60% -11.7%
10% -29.9% 40% -20.2%
15% -36.7% 40% -27.9%
20% -42.9% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$125 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$74 +73%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $202 +$89 +44%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $152 −$150 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $548 +$60 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $517 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $152 16h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $202 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 89¢ $504 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.16 · official $505.16 (match) · 11 history records