Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9A 0x9adc…84ec crypto 759 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,762 (-2%) realized −$3,787 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%468W / 290L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,512
sports 0% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +4.1% -5.8% 68% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 585 +1.3% -8.4% 63% 48% -14.2%
≤90d 672 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 47% -17.0%
all 758 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 48% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 48% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 33% -23.1%
15% -26.3% 22% -30.5%
20% -33.5% 13% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$108 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$3,787
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses468 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)758 / 759
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 758 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 76¢ 94¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $902 −$495 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $187 +$105 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $816 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $252 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $585 +$115 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $228 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $228 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $296 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $276 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $314 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $449 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $171 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $777 −$238 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $354 +$34 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $693 −$21 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $410 +$238 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $415 −$38 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $330 −$62 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $436 +$105 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $360 −$178 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $226 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $256 +$113 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $306 +$124 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $358 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $235 −$30 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $480 +$105 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $407 −$60 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $870 −$340 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $486 −$24 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $337 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$43 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $151 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $205 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $61 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $400 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.07 · official $118.46 · 3500 history records