Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad9…7c04 other 114 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$11
politics 35% −$9
sports 5% −$69
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -6.2% -15.2% 3% 2% -9.9%
all 113 -7.2% -16.1% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -24.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -31.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage110d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $195 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $501 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $372 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $383 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $162 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $371 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $363 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 9d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 20d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $186 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $186 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 23d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $147 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $148 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.01 · official $25.01 (match) · 307 history records