Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9ad9…7e66 crypto 894 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,048 (-15%) realized −$2,695 · open −$353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%420W / 431L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,170
7 days−$1,859
14 days−$1,644
30 days−$1,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$926
crypto 30% −$207
sports 25% −$1,018
weather 9% +$127
politics 5% −$70
world 1% −$34
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -26.5% -33.5% 45% 32% -26.4%
≤30d 280 -12.3% -20.6% 60% 24% -22.7%
≤90d 851 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 33% -19.3%
all 851 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 33% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 33% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -27.0%
15% -25.4% 25% -34.1%
20% -32.7% 23% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,467
Realized−$2,695
Unrealized−$353
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses420 / 431
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions43
Markets (closed)851 / 894
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 22¢ 18¢ $1,413 $1,168 −$244 (-17%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $252 $184 −$68 (-27%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-28%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $8 +$5 (+275%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 22¢ $16 $7 −$10 (-59%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No 19¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-59%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 +$10 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $19 −$15 -78%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $45 −$11 -24%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $250 −$59 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$26 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $165 +$29 +17%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1,140 −$828 -73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $153 +$82 +54%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $842 +$65 +8%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 +$107 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $778 +$67 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $722 +$39 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $595 +$109 +18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $35 −$16 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $28 −$22 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $613 $0 -0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $627 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $421 +$148 +35%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $388 +$48 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $391 +$65 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $38 −$35 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 2m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 15m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 17m
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 18m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $12 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $6 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $31 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $8 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $93 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $63 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $12 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $28 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $18 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $2 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $19 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,466.93 · official $1,463.09 (match) · 3500 history records