Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9ad8…8a2c sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 503d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,108 (+5%) realized +$1,108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%87W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days+$1,022
14 days+$1,412
30 days+$1,853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$707
other 12% +$1,003
crypto 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +48.2% +34.1% 69% 69% +32.3%
≤30d 89 +31.8% +19.3% 60% 60% +17.1%
≤90d 143 +21.6% +10.0% 59% 59% -0.4%
all 150 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 58% -1.3%
10% -2.2% 55% -10.8%
15% -11.6% 51% -19.4%
20% -20.3% 45% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$97 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$1,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses87 / 63
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage503d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 47¢ 48¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $50 −$18 -36%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $54 −$9 -16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 Jun 25 $102 −$96 -95%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $41 +$39 +95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $51 −$8 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $56 +$41 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$237 +232%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Jun 23 $56 +$60 +107%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$71 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 Jun 21 $102 +$107 +106%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $401 +$43 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $56 +$8 +15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$65 +127%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$45 +89%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 −$30 -54%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $66 +$35 +53%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$56 +92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $61 +$115 +187%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $56 +$27 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $102 +$131 +128%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $36 +$61 +172%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland to sco Jun 18 $51 +$69 +135%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $56 +$34 +61%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$39 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $56 +$41 +74%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$46 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$19 +54%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$28 -77%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 −$35 -63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$59 +116%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $46 +$55 +120%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $56 +$60 +107%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $56 +$41 +74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $51 −$11 -22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$52 +102%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $36 +$24 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $56 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 SELL 13¢ $32 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL 32¢ $46 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 37¢ $54 14h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 BUY 19¢ $50 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 28¢ $82 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 SELL $5 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 41h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- SELL 31¢ $43 42h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $35 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $51 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 42¢ $102 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 57¢ $56 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 12¢ $103 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY $62 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on BUY 52¢ $56 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will G BUY 24¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 99¢ $340 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND SELL 99¢ $116 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $51 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND BUY 47¢ $56 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $104 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 SELL 99¢ $209 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 47¢ $102 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $441 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $303 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.00 · official $119.99 (match) · 325 history records