Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad2…b794 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% $0
world 26% $0
other 22% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage286d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -13%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $27 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $32 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $32 30d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 31d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $15 31d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 272d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $20 272d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 272d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 89¢ $4 272d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 272d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 272d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $8 273d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $9 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.50 · official $31.50 (match) · 114 history records