Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad1…0151 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%28W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$34
14 days−$45
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$21
other 30% −$32
politics 25% −$19
crypto 5% −$7
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 78 -1.0% -10.4% 3% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 89 -1.0% -10.5% 2% 0% -10.3%
all 360 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses28 / 332
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage654d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $62 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $66 −$2 -4%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $74 −$4 -6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $273 −$4 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $245 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $309 −$3 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $187 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $194 −$4 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $117 −$4 -3%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 09 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $49 −$2 -4%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $125 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $63 −$3 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 7h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 8h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 12h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 12h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $63 13h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $63 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 28h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $64 29h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $66 33h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $34 33h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $29 39h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $72 40h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $73 45h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $70 46h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $74 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $67 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $69 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $27 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $62 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $63 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $56 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $56 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.63 · official $53.63 (match) · 1356 history records