Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad0…db2c other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$270 (+10%) realized +$363 · open −$93
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$469
other 23% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -3.9% -13.1% 30% 30% -47.2%
≤90d 25 -6.1% -15.0% 32% 32% -12.4%
all 25 -6.1% -15.0% 32% 32% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 32% -12.4%
10% -23.2% 32% -20.8%
15% -30.6% 32% -28.4%
20% -37.4% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$60 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage39d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $51 $77 +$26 (+51%)
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? No 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $107 +$214 +199%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $3 +$9 +276%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $159 −$159 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $864 −$464 -54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$4 -9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $338 −$2 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $326 +$457 +140%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 24 $476 −$185 -39%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $84 +$193 +231%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 59¢ $1 5h
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 26d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 75¢ $53 26d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 26d
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 26d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $132 26d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 20¢ $51 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports $64 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 11¢ $1 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 11¢ $4 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 11¢ $11 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 11¢ $1 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 10¢ $9 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 16¢ $40 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 16¢ $40 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 42¢ $107 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 62¢ $157 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 63¢ $220 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 20¢ $31 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.13 · official $79.13 (match) · 96 history records