Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad0…d85a crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$439 (-28%) realized −$565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$415
14 days−$415
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$430
world 9% −$121
politics 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -34.5% -40.7% 31% 31% -37.3%
≤30d 45 -34.5% -40.7% 31% 31% -37.3%
≤90d 45 -34.5% -40.7% 31% 31% -37.3%
all 51 -39.9% -45.6% 29% 29% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 29% -43.2%
10% -50.8% 25% -48.7%
15% -55.6% 25% -53.6%
20% -60.0% 25% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage246d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? No 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? No 5¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$17 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$12 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$55 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$49 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$45 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$95 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$104 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Oct 12 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records