Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad0…bf3d world 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1058 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$51,835 (+25%) realized +$59,115 · open −$7,280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 57L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,931per market
Trades / day1057.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$71,388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$320
other 8% −$3,779
politics 1% −$941
finance 1% +$76
crypto 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1058 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -20.4% -28.0% 25% 16% -9.1%
≤30d 76 -20.4% -28.0% 25% 16% -9.1%
≤90d 76 -20.4% -28.0% 25% 16% -9.1%
all 76 -20.4% -28.0% 25% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1057.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 16% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 13% -17.8%
15% -41.2% 9% -25.7%
20% -47.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -69% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$48 · ×5.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$71,388
Realized+$59,115
Unrealized−$7,280
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions208
Markets (closed)76 / 70
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$2,931
Trades / day1057.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 208 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $6,273 $6,277 +$4 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $4,262 $4,114 −$148 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,994 $3,996 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,485 $2,484 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,440 $2,445 +$5 (+0%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,074 $2,062 −$12 (-1%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2,025 $2,046 +$21 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,979 $1,980 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,706 $1,715 +$9 (+1%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1,599 $1,639 +$40 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,477 $1,539 +$62 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 74¢ $1,659 $1,435 −$224 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $1,326 $1,427 +$101 (+8%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 64¢ 94¢ $916 $1,346 +$430 (+47%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,327 $1,339 +$11 (+1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $988 $1,004 +$15 (+2%)
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $988 $992 +$4 (+0%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $887 $897 +$10 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $763 $842 +$78 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 27¢ $1,228 $816 −$413 (-34%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 73¢ $655 $811 +$156 (+24%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 49¢ 64¢ $573 $762 +$189 (+33%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 84¢ $598 $734 +$136 (+23%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $691 $717 +$26 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $686 $695 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 16 $8 +$8 +90%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +289%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Jun 16 $35 −$88 -248%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 16 $0 $0 +17%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: FC Nantes 0 - 3 Toulouse FC? Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? Jun 16 $33 −$36 -110%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 16 $154 −$113 -73%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Jun 16 $67 −$3 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -101%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$2,536 +71604%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 16 $40 −$55 -139%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 16 $23 −$32 -141%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$9 -88%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 16 $36 −$17 -47%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $132 −$147 -112%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$171 -989%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +41%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Jun 16 $31 −$26 -82%
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Jun 16 $21 −$31 -145%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$37 -92%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 16 $40 −$35 -87%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 16 $56 −$70 -125%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 16 $2 +$13 +577%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 16 $84 −$126 -150%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +74%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $95 −$62 -65%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -63%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 16 $27 −$25 -90%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,650 (HIGH) by April 30? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 16 $72 −$67 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 16 $112 −$158 -141%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID - Game 4 Winne Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,331 37m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 48m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $81 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $632 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $836 59m
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 1h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 98¢ $122 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $144 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,582 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $171 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $314 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $413 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $90 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $0 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $0 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,387.64 · official $71,388.88 (match) · 3500 history records