Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9ad0…be1d
weather · 1080 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$1,612 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,611 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized+$1,611
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses162 / 664
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)826 / 1080
History coverage162d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 826 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$388
7 days+$611
14 days+$1,666
30 days+$2,043
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 24? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 27? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$7 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $206 −$124 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $156 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $208 +$110 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $131 −$42 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$82 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $214 +$44 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $131 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $57 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $152 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$129 +1241%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $0 +$2 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$37 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$27 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$5 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$47 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$19 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $0 +$12 +3079%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$16 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$11 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$56 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$9 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 57% +$840
crypto 26% −$16
other 10% +$569
sports 7% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 37h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $203 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 39h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +87.5% +69.6% 50% 40% +8.2%
≤30d 668 +36.8% +23.8% 21% 20% +16.3%
≤90d 822 +17.8% +6.6% 19% 18% +6.9%
all 826 +18.4% +7.1% 20% 18% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 18% +8.0%
10% -3.2% 18% -2.3%
15% -12.5% 17% -11.8%
20% -21.1% 16% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.74 · official $120.85 (match) · 1720 history records