Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9ace…0f16 crypto 812 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (414 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,965 (-57%) realized −$1,965 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%413W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day414.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$466
14 days−$424
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (414 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 803 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 49% -22.0%
≤30d 813 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 50% -20.7%
≤90d 813 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 50% -20.7%
all 813 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 50% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover414.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 50% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -28.3%
15% -22.7% 43% -35.2%
20% -30.3% 42% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses413 / 400
Open positions1
Markets (closed)813 / 812
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day414.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $0.70 (match) · 3500 history records