Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9acd…a3fe other 694 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,551 (-2%) realized −$2,459 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate90%573W / 62L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$8,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,728
7 days−$2,603
14 days−$2,444
30 days−$2,494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3,308
politics 22% +$225
weather 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -5.1% -14.2% 86% 0% -23.8%
≤30d 341 -3.2% -12.5% 88% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 635 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 1% -12.0%
all 635 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 1% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 1% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -20.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -28.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$79 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$8,140
Realized−$2,459
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses573 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions59
Markets (closed)635 / 694
History coverage88d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $622 $630 +$8 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $458 $462 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $355 $356 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $349 $342 −$6 (-2%)
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $339 $342 +$3 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $289 $291 +$3 (+1%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $284 $286 +$2 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $259 $259 +$1 (+0%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $256 $258 +$2 (+1%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $256 $258 +$2 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $253 $255 +$2 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 73¢ $313 $231 −$82 (-26%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $224 $226 +$2 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $201 $201 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $157 $159 +$2 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $157 $154 −$3 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $145 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+0%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $371 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $193 +$11 +6%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $93 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $239 +$1 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $234 +$2 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $224 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $233 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $128 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $219 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 15 $406 +$4 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$5 -11%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $359 +$3 +1%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,076 +$119 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $490 −$21 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $223 −$4 -2%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $916 +$6 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $269 +$1 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +3%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $344 +$4 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $131 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $64 48m
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 51m
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 54m
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 54m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $306 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 12h
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 12h
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 12h
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 12h
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 12h
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13h
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 14h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 14h
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 14h
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 14h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 99¢ $99 14h
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 14h
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 14h
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $138 14h
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 14h
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 14h
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,139.79 · official $8,139.79 (match) · 2541 history records