Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9acb…538c world 53 markets active 4d ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$114 (-11%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$7
tech 27% −$92
other 5% −$28
politics 5% +$12
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% −$1
sports 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.5% -14.5% 82% 9% -7.5%
≤30d 11 -5.5% -14.5% 82% 9% -7.5%
≤90d 15 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 7% -14.5%
all 53 -10.1% -18.6% 55% 11% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 11% -16.0%
10% -26.4% 2% -24.0%
15% -33.5% 2% -31.4%
20% -40.0% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage212d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 02 $42 −$6 -14%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 25 $3 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 18 $80 $0 +0%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $24 +$12 +52%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $1 $0 -0%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $201 −$91 -46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 01 $1 $0 -4%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 31 $1 $0 +21%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $45 +$1 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 29 $3 $0 -6%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $10 −$1 -7%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $216 −$26 -12%
Will Trump say "Breaking News" in January? Jan 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $1 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 26 $7 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 24 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jan 23 $8 $0 -4%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 23 $2 $0 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 21 $5 +$1 +14%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -75%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 15 $1 $0 -21%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $145 +$19 +13%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 14 $2 $0 -16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 11 $3 $0 -4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $2 $0 -1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $10 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 11 $5 $0 -4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Jan 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 76d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 91¢ $0 76d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $1 76d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 84d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 84d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 91d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 91d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 100¢ $36 117d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $5 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $1 129d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $1 130d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 5¢ $15 135d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 10¢ $10 135d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 15¢ $1 135d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 15¢ $14 135d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? SELL No 22¢ $21 135d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? BUY No 20¢ $19 136d
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? SELL No 34¢ $2 136d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 88¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records