Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aca…61fd sports 716 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,633 (+9%) realized +$3,582 · open +$1,051
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%400W / 281L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$13,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days+$482
14 days+$620
30 days+$992
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1,429
crypto 28% −$30
sports 20% +$871
politics 6% +$388
finance 3% −$107
world 3% −$78
tech 0% +$40
economics 0% −$39
weather 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +11.7% +1.0% 63% 62% +3.6%
≤30d 223 +7.6% -2.6% 62% 61% -0.4%
≤90d 664 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 55% -5.5%
all 681 +3.6% -6.3% 59% 55% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 55% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 49% -14.4%
15% -23.4% 40% -22.7%
20% -30.9% 32% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$13,042
Realized+$3,582
Unrealized+$1,051
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses400 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions38
Markets (closed)681 / 716
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $8,647 $9,515 +$868 (+10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 80¢ $953 $1,121 +$168 (+18%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $849 $1,055 +$206 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $271 $384 +$113 (+41%)
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $183 $208 +$24 (+13%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 92¢ 93¢ $121 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 59¢ 100¢ $65 $111 +$46 (+70%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 68¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $70 $52 −$18 (-26%)
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 79¢ 66¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 16¢ $92 $28 −$63 (-69%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-7%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 55¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 44¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 42¢ 35¢ $22 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $22 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 54¢ 55¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Over 61¢ 22¢ $18 $7 −$12 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $238 +$171 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $87 +$45 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $152 +$15 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $54 +$26 +49%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $66 −$46 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $437 −$433 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$21 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $43 +$33 +78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $31 +$19 +61%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $26 +$25 +95%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $68 +$77 +114%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $42 +$49 +117%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $134 +$106 +79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $13 +$13 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $103 +$64 +62%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $100 +$100 +100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $13 +$7 +56%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +104%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $45 +$15 +33%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $64 +$26 +40%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$3 +24%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 +$17 +226%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $86 +$114 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $6 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY Yes 54¢ $6 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $1 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $3 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $3 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $93 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $12 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $30 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $18 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $18 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $8 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $148 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $57 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $36 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,042.12 · official $13,046.90 (match) · 3500 history records